Friday, March 21, 2025

2025-03-20 Sold BRK Partially and Bought PAX

Robinhood is not going to support fractional shares for Berkshire Hathaway Class A (BRK.A) on April 3, 2025.


My position was very tiny, and my original intent of buying Class A shares on 2023/12/22 was to hope that one day I could accumulate enough to own one large share of Berkshire Hathaway Class A by accumulating one tiny piece at a time. Now that cannot happen, so I decided to just dispose of it.

This will be a tax hit to me given the shares went up 45%. While I could simply use the sales proceeds to buy Class B shares, I decided to use this opportunity to add into a position that is more attractively priced today, Patria (PAX).

From the share price perspective, unlike Berkshire Hathaway shares, PAX went down 18% since 2023/12/22 even adjusted for dividends.

From the fundamental perspective, my buy below price calculated on 2024/12/14 was $16.18 for PAX, so the current share price of $11.85 is 27% discount to the buy below price, very attractive.


Price

$11.85

Div

$0.6 (5.06%)

DE

$1 (P/DE = 11.85)

Adjusted DE

70% of DE, which is $1 * 0.7 = $0.7. P/ADE = 16.92

Expected annual growth

~12%

Buy below price

2027 $1.7 FRE/share. $1.7 * 0.9 * 0.7 = $1.07 adjusted DE/share.



$1.07 * 20 / (1.15^2) = $16.18 (based on P/ADE = 20 in 2027)


On the other hand, Whitney Tilson, a Berkshire Hathaway bull, estimated the intrinsic value of Berkshire Hathaway was $742,000 per A-share on March 3, 2025 (source):

I believe it's similar to the one CEO Warren Buffett uses: Take the cash and investments per share and add the value of the operating businesses.

At the end of the fourth quarter, cash and investments were about $454,000 per A-share. Since then, Berkshire's stock portfolio has increased by about $2,000 per share, so that's about $456,000 today.

...

Berkshire's 2024 pretax operating earnings were about $26,000 per share. (I adjust for volatile insurance and investment income by subtracting it and then adding back half of the average over the past two years, which is $11.7 billion of pretax earnings. I think this is conservative, given that Berkshire's total insurance and investment income has averaged $9.7 billion annually over the past 10 years, and the company is much larger now.)"

I apply a conservative below-market multiple of 11 times to Berkshire's pretax operating EPS of about $26,000, to arrive at a value of around $286,000 per share.

Thus, my estimate of Berkshire's intrinsic value is about $456,000 (cash and investments) plus roughly $286,000 (operating businesses), for a total of around $742,000 per A-share, or $495 per B-share.

BRK class A traded at $792,880 today, so a 6.8% premium on Whitney's estimated intrinsic value.

PAX has a higher growth perspective (12+%) in earnings, higher dividend yield (5% compared to 0%), and lower P/E ratio. It is also a capital light business, unlike Berkshire Hathaway. The only edge that Berkshire has is its superb safety provided by its diversified revenue streams. With the much higher expected return from PAX, I believe the risk-reward ratio of trading BRK for PAX is very favorable.

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